Horizon Kinetics Launches Inflation Beneficiaries Exchange Traded Fund (INFL)
01/12/2021 Reading Length: 2 pages
View Press Release
Asia Opportunity Commentary 3Q2020
December 2020 Reading Length: 7 pages
Peter Doyle on Daniel Prince's Once BITten! Podcast
November 2020 Listening Time: 1 hour 24 minutes

Bitcoin Co-Existing with Fiat Currency and the Banking System
November 2020 Reading Length: 3 pages
3rd Quarter 2020 Abridged Commentary
November 2020 Reading Length: 23 pages
3rd Quarter 2020 Commentary
October 2020 Reading Length: 37 pages | Listening Time: 2 hour 02 minutes

Revised to include supplemental information, this quarter’s review is about the energy sector. Investors fear a permanent failure to recover (if not an impending collapse) due to the fossil fuel divestment movement and alternative energy growth. Stock prices already reflect that outcome. Yet, the most comprehensive multi-factor analyses of long-term global energy consumption do not result in that outcome, despite projected rapid multi-decade expansion of alternative energy. That’s a wide and consequential divide. Within that divide there are enormous information advantage possibilities, and we believe it presents one of the most extraordinary of investment opportunities. Neither set of expectations takes account of the historic – and worsening – structural oil & gas supply deficits. The greater near-term danger is a long-lasting oil price shock. The sheer volume of information available from innumerable sources on this complex set of topics can be overwhelming to those seeking to make information-based decisions. This review addresses misconceptions about both conventional and renewable energy. Finally, we discuss two positions that have been mentioned time and again; one provides exposure to the energy sector with a royalty model that limits risk; the other provides (among other potential benefits) a hedge against inflation, which we view as the highest risk to investors.

0:00 – Energy
6:50 – Fact-Based Investing (Nifty-Fifty and Tech Bubble)
13:35 – Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Research
18:20 – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Projections
26:34 – International Energy Agency (IEA) Projections
29:10 – British Petroleum (BP) Projections
31:00 – Renewable Energy Facts - Interruptible
33:34 – Renewable Energy Facts - Carbon Intensity
46:30 – Renewable Energy Facts - Takeaways
49:24 – Renewable Energy Facts - Other Factors
1:04:09 – Natural Gas Supply and Demand
1:09:00 – Oil Supply and Demand
1:17:30 – Fracking
1:27:35 – Are Investors Leaving Oil?
1:31:15 – Texas Pacific Land Trust
1:47:03 – Cryptocurrency
1:53:47 – Addendum: Raw Materials - Supply Limitations and Environmental Impact

Peter Doyle on Modern Value Investing - The Pomp Podcast
October 2020 Listening Time: 55 minutes

The link below is an interview with Anthony Pompliano, host of the Pomp Podcast, and our co-founder, Peter Doyle. Peter discusses, among other things, inflation beneficiaries, bitcoin and risks associated with passive index investing.

0:00 – Background of Peter Doyle, Horizon Kinetics, and the Firm’s Investment Thesis
3:44 – Value investing in the Current Macro Environment
7:10 – Hard Asset and Asset-Light Focus (Texas Pacific Land Trust)
10:00 – Inflation (Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus)
18:55 – Fixed Income and Equity as Part of a 60/40 Portfolio
23:30 – Energy
25:50 – Bitcoin and Mining
39:15 – Financial Exchanges
40:20 – Venture Capital, Private Investments, and International Markets
43:10 – Bitcoin - Institutional Acceptance
46:08 – Final Questions

The AMAGF IT/Social Media Stocks – Some Factual Observations
October 2020 Reading Length: 8 pages

Some factual observations about the S&P 500 and technology stocks. Investors assume that an index like the S&P 500 gives broad exposure to “the market.” The 5 largest positions, 1% of the names, all technology, are now 22% of the Index market value. That 1% has accounted for close to half of the S&P 500 market value increase in the past five years. There are now two essential possibilities: The IT companies fulfill analysts’ 5 -year growth forecasts – higher even than the past 5-years’ growth – and easily double their index weight. At a 45% to 60% or higher IT weight, the S&P 500 is then a technology index of record-high valuation multiples. The IT companies don’t fulfill those expectations. The figures in this review quantify a few central competitive, regulatory and financial accounting risks, all of which are impending and any of which can seriously reduce the growth and profit margins of these mega-cap companies.