Murray Stahl on Bloomberg Inside Active: Horizon’s Stahl on Letting Winners Run
In a market shaped by index concentration and short-term performance pressures, contrarian strategies are leaning into opportunities others may not have the patience or liquidity to own. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active management analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, speaks with Murray Stahl, CEO, CIO, and co founder of Horizon Kinetics and a portfolio manager for the Paradigm Fund (WWNPX). They discuss Horizon’s long horizon contrarian philosophy, grounded in Stahl’s view that investors optimize for one year grading periods, and the firm’s concept of an equity yield curve to explain why long duration opportunities can be overlooked. The conversation also covers the fund’s willingness to let winners compound rather than trim positions, the tax considerations behind concentration, Stahl’s framework for Bitcoin exposure, and why he views private investments as a natural extension of the strategy in an era of index dominance. The podcast was recorded on February 18.
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The opinions contained in this transcript are not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results, or investment advice. The statements made in this transcript are based on information available to the public, and no representation is made with regard to their accuracy or completeness. An investor’s investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate, so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The views expressed herein may change at any time subsequent to the date of issue hereof. This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
All expressions or opinions reflect the opinions of the presenter at the time they were made and are subject to change. HKAM may have positions in the securities of companies mentioned. Reproduction is strictly prohibited. As always, past performance does not guarantee future results. You will be charged a redemption fee equal to 2.00% of the net amount of the redemption if you redeem or exchange your shares less than 30 days after you purchase them. As most are non-diversified Funds, the value of the Funds’ shares may fluctuate more than shares invested in a broader range of companies. Non-investment-grade debt securities, i.e., junk bonds, are subject to greater credit risk, price volatility, and risk of loss than investment-grade securities.
Investing in common stocks has inherent risks that could cause you to lose money. The principal risks of investing in the Paradigm Fund, and indirectly the Paradigm Portfolio, are listed below and could adversely affect the net asset value (“NAV”), total return and value of the Paradigm Fund, Paradigm Portfolio and your investment. The risks are prioritized by order of importance. Each risk summarized below is considered a principal risk of investing in the Paradigm Fund, and indirectly the Paradigm Portfolio, regardless of the order in which it appears. Different risks may be more significant at different times depending on market conditions or other factors. Single Security Concentration Risk: Holding a large portion of its net assets in a single security or issuer exposes the Portfolio to various risks relating to that security or issuer and to the market volatility of that specific security or issuer if the security or issuer performs worse than the market as a whole, which could adversely affect the Fund’s performance. Non-Diversification Risks: Holding a large portion of its net assets in a small number of issuers exposes the Portfolio to various risks relating to those issuers. A change in the value of any one investment may affect the overall value of the Paradigm Portfolio’s shares, and therefore the Paradigm Fund’s shares, more than shares of a diversified mutual fund that holds more investments. Petroleum and Gas Sector Risk: The profitability of companies in the oil and gas industry is related to worldwide energy prices, exploration costs and production spending. Companies in the oil and gas industry may be at risk for environmental damage claims and other types of litigation. Companies in the oil and gas industry may be adversely affected by: natural disasters or other catastrophes; changes in exchange rates or interest rates; prices for competitive energy services, economic conditions, tax treatment, or government regulation; government intervention; negative public perception; or unfavorable events in the regions where companies operate (e.g., expropriation, nationalization, confiscation of assets and property, imposition of restrictions on foreign investments or repatriation of capital, military coups, social or political unrest, violence or labor unrest). Companies in the oil and gas industry may have significant capital investments in, or engage in transactions involving, emerging market countries, which may heighten these risks.
Certain funds mentioned herein provide exposure to bitcoin. The value of bitcoin is determined by the supply of and demand for bitcoin in the global market for the trading of bitcoin, which consists of transactions on electronic bitcoin exchanges (“Bitcoin Exchanges”). Pricing on Bitcoin Exchanges and other venues can be volatile and can adversely affect the value of the bitcoin. Currently, there is relatively small use of bitcoin in the retail and commercial marketplace in comparison to the relatively large use of bitcoin by speculators, thus contributing to price volatility that could adversely affect a portfolio’s direct or indirect investments in bitcoin. Bitcoin transactions are irrevocable, and stolen or incorrectly transferred bitcoin may be irretrievable. As a result, any incorrectly executed bitcoin transactions could adversely affect the value of a portfolio’s direct or indirect investment in bitcoin. Only investors who can appreciate the risks associated with an investment should invest in cryptocurrencies or products that offer cryptocurrency exposure. As with all investments, investors should consult with their investment, legal, and tax professionals before investing, as you may lose money.
Peter Doyle is a member of the Board of Directors of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (“TPL”). Eric Sites, who is an employee of the Funds’ adviser is a member of the Board of Directors of Miami International Holdings (“MIAX”). TPL and MIAX are holdings in certain client accounts and funds (including the Funds) managed by Horizon Kinetics Asset Management LLC (“HKAM”). Officers, directors and employees may also hold substantial amounts of TPL and MIAX, both directly and indirectly, in their personal accounts. HKAM seeks to address potential conflicts of interest through the adoption of various policies and procedures, which include both electronic and physical safeguards. Additionally, Mr. Doyle does not exercise investment discretion over TPL and Mr. Sites does not exercise investment discretion over MIAX. All personal and proprietary trading is subject to HKAM’s Code of Ethics and is monitored by the firm’s Legal and Compliance Department. In connection with Mr. Doyle’s appointment on the TPL Board, the Adviser entered into a Board Representation Agreement, the terms of which in HKAM’s Form ADV on file with the SEC. Because it has investment and voting discretion with respect to a substantial percentage of the outstanding voting shares of TPL and MIAX, the Adviser may be deemed to be an affiliate of TPL and MIAX under certain securities laws. As a result, the Adviser and the Funds might be restricted or limited in selling shares of TPL or MIAX and may be subject to other requirements arising from such status.
Options contain special risks, including the imperfect correlation between the value of the option and the value of the underlying asset. In addition, investing in foreign securities involves more risk than does investing in U.S. investments, including the risk of currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and differences in financial reporting standards. There may also be heightened risks investing in non-investment grade debt securities and the use of options. Also, there are risks associated with investing in small- and medium-sized companies. Unlike other investment companies that directly acquire and manage their own portfolios of securities, the Funds pursue their investment objectives by investing all their investable assets in a corresponding portfolio series of Kinetics Portfolio Trust.